On 14 October 2026, the United States International Trade Commission confirmed that imports of solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia and Laos are causing material injury to the US industry. This final determination authorises the Department of Commerce to publish orders on 2 November imposing combined antidumping and countervailing duties reaching 249% for India, 268% for Indonesia and 219% for Laos. For global solar panel importers, this third wave of US trade restrictions on photovoltaics is abruptly reshaping global supply chains and effectively shutting off US market access for three of the main alternative suppliers.

The 14 October ruling locks in record duties on three strategic solar corridors

On 14 October 2026, the United States International Trade Commission (USITC) issued a final affirmative determination in its Solar IV investigation, confirming that imports of crystalline silicon photovoltaic cells — whether or not assembled into modules — from India, Indonesia and Laos are causing material injury to the US industry.

This decision closes a 15-month investigation and authorises the Department of Commerce to publish the final antidumping (AD) and countervailing duty (CVD) orders on 2 November 2026.

The final rates set by the Department of Commerce on 11 September 2026 are now locked in: for India, a dumping margin of 123.04% and a countervailing duty of 126.09%, giving a combined total of 249.13%. For Indonesia, a dumping margin of 94.36% for all producers and countervailing duties ranging from 73.2% to 173.7% depending on the supplier, reaching a maximum of 268.06%. For Laos, a dumping margin of 65.43% and countervailing duties of 82.03% to 153.67%, for a total of up to 219.10%.

As soon as the orders are published on 2 November, US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) will require cash deposits at these rates for all entries of solar cells and modules originating from these three countries.

Immediate recommendation: If you import solar cells or modules into the United States from India, Indonesia or Laos, check now with your customs broker the specific rate applicable to your supplier and calculate the impact on your import costs. Orders placed before 2 November but arriving after that date will be subject to the new duties.

Three countries, three tariff trajectories — and the near-total closure of the US market

The final rates published in September significantly tightened the preliminary rates announced in April 2026 for two of the three countries. For Indonesia, the Department of Commerce extended the 94.36% dumping margin — initially applied to a single producer (Blue Sky Solar) — to all Indonesian producers. Laos saw the sharpest increase: the preliminary rate of 33.57% nearly doubled to reach 65.43% at final determination. India, by contrast, retained its preliminary rates unchanged.

These AD/CVD duties come on top of all the other US tariff measures already in force, notably Section 232 tariffs, Section 301 tariffs and minimum import price floors. They do not replace them, but stack on top of them. For a US importer of Indian modules, the total cost may now include: the standard Column 1 tariff, the 10% Section 301 duty, the 123.04% AD duty, the 126.09% CVD duty, and potentially other surcharges depending on the precise tariff classification.

Practical point: Antidumping and countervailing duties are calculated on the value of the product before other tariffs are applied. If you import a solar module worth $1,000 from India, you will pay $1,230.40 in AD duties, $1,260.90 in CVD duties, plus other applicable tariffs — more than $2,491 in customs charges on a $1,000 product, even before VAT or processing fees.

The American Alliance of Solar Manufacturers continues its tariff encirclement strategy

This Solar IV case is the third wave of a tariff strategy led by the Alliance for American Solar Manufacturing and Trade (AASMT), which brings together US manufacturers Hanwha Q CELLS, First Solar and Mission Solar.

In June 2025, the AASMT had already secured AD/CVD orders on Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand and Vietnam, accusing them of serving as re-export platforms to circumvent existing tariffs on Chinese products. These four countries then represented the main alternative import routes for solar products into the United States.

The investigation against India, Indonesia and Laos was launched in July 2025, precisely as US importers were seeking to redirect their sourcing to these three countries to avoid the new restrictions on Southeast Asia. The USITC ruled in August 2025 that there was a reasonable indication of injury, triggering the full investigation. The Department of Commerce issued its preliminary determinations in April 2026, imposing provisional cash deposits from that date.

In its determination of 14 October, the USITC also found the existence of "critical circumstances" for Indonesia — indicating a massive surge in imports after the petition was filed — but not for India and Laos. This finding could allow for the retroactive application of duties on certain Indonesian imports that arrived before the preliminary determination.

Strategic context: The AASMT has already publicly flagged Ethiopia as a potential next target. US imports of solar modules from Ethiopia are reported to have increased by more than 3,000% over the past 12 months, according to data cited by trade media. The alliance suspects manufacturers of shifting their operations to this new corridor in order to circumvent existing restrictions.

Immediate operational impact for importers and solar project developers

From 2 November 2026, the scheduled date for publication of the official orders by the Department of Commerce, all entries of solar cells and modules from India, Indonesia and Laos will be subject to cash deposits payable to US Customs. These deposits are calculated at the final AD/CVD rate specific to each producer or exporter, as identified in the Commerce final determination of 11 September.

For US solar project developers who have already signed module purchase agreements with suppliers in these three countries, the financial equation changes dramatically. A project that was relying on Indian modules at $0.25 per watt must now factor in roughly $0.62 per watt in additional customs duties — before even accounting for other federal tariffs. For a 100 MW project, this represents around $37 million in unforeseen additional customs costs.

Importers purchasing from producers not specifically named in the investigation will pay the "all others" rate, which is the highest rate established for each country.

Immediate recommended actions:

Check your supplier: Identify the exact legal name of your manufacturer or exporter and check whether it appears in the Commerce final determinations published on 11 September. Some producers have individual rates lower than the "all others" rate.
Recalculate your landed costs: Factor the new AD/CVD duties into your total import cost calculations, adding all other applicable tariffs (Section 301, Section 232, etc.).
Secure your supplies before 2 November: Goods that physically arrive in the United States before 2 November with a customs entry dated before that date may avoid the final deposits, although provisional deposits have applied since the April preliminary determinations.
Explore alternatives: Assess the viability of sourcing from US manufacturers, countries not subject to AD/CVD orders, or producers benefiting from preferential rates under free trade agreements.
Consult an international trade lawyer: If you believe your products do not fall exactly within the scope covered by the orders (for example, products undergoing substantial transformation after import), legal advice could identify possible exclusions.

The USITC's full report expected on 23 November — and the next regulatory steps

The USITC will publish its full report detailing the factual and legal findings of its investigation on 23 November 2026. This report, running to several hundred pages, will provide a detailed analysis of the US market, import volumes, prices, the condition of the US industry, and the causal link between the imports and the alleged injury.

Importers and their legal advisers will use this document to understand precisely the Commission's reasoning and assess possible challenge or adaptation strategies.

Once the orders are published on 2 November, US Customs will immediately begin collecting cash deposits on all new entries. These deposits are not final duties: each year, the Department of Commerce conducts an administrative review to calculate the actual dumping and subsidy rates for the past year. Importers may then receive refunds if the final rates are lower than the deposits paid, or be billed for additional amounts if the rates are higher.

AD/CVD orders remain in force indefinitely unless revoked. Every five years, the Department of Commerce and the USITC conduct a "sunset review" to determine whether revocation of the orders would likely lead to the continuation or recurrence of dumping, subsidies and injury. If both agencies answer in the affirmative, the orders are renewed for a further five years.

Regulatory watch: Monitor the US Federal Register for the official publication of the orders, expected around 2 November 2026. This publication will contain the exact instructions for customs, the applicable HTSUS tariff codes and the final rates by producer. Subscribe to Department of Commerce alerts to be informed immediately of any amendment, revision or clarification.

United States imposes antidumping duties of up to 268% on solar energy: USITC ruling of 14 October on India, Indonesia and Laos